Venezuela's oil: A story of potential, challenges, and uncertain futures. Industry analysts at Enverus project a significant rise in Venezuela's oil production, with an anticipated 50% increase by 2035, potentially reaching 1.5 million barrels per day. This forecast comes amidst shifting political landscapes and the potential for new leadership.
Enverus even paints a more optimistic picture, suggesting a possible tripling of production to 3 million barrels per day over the next decade. This would be a remarkable turnaround for a nation that once boasted a thriving oil industry.
However, the path to recovery isn't straightforward. Enverus also suggests that the 30-50 million barrels that Trump ordered Venezuela to relinquish to the U.S. will not have a major impact on global markets. "Even with accelerated sanctions relief, we still see 1–2 million barrels per day of global oversupply in the first half of 2026 and limited incremental volumes from Venezuela," according to Al Salazar, head of macro research at Enverus.
But here's where it gets controversial... Venezuela sits on the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at around 303 billion barrels. Yet, production has plummeted from over 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to less than 1 million bpd today. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including chronic underinvestment, mismanagement, and international sanctions.
The existing infrastructure, including pipelines, wellheads, and refineries, is in dire need of repair. Restoring these assets will require tens of billions of dollars in investment and years of dedicated work. Many wells are inactive, and there has been a lack of significant exploratory drilling in recent years.
Many experts believe that achieving the peak production levels of the 1970s, which reached 3.5 mb/d, would require over $100 billion in international investment, extensive infrastructure reconstruction, and the resolution of various political and legal uncertainties.
Last week, former U.S. President Donald Trump's pitch to oil executives to invest in Venezuela's oil sector yielded mixed results. Exxon Mobil's CEO, Darren Woods, described the country as "uninvestable" under its current commercial frameworks and hydrocarbon laws. ConocoPhillips' CEO, Ryan Lance, also expressed concerns, highlighting the billions of dollars his company lost when it exited the country.
And this is the part most people miss... Despite the challenges, some companies remain optimistic. Hilcorp's Jeff Hildebrand expressed his company's readiness to rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure, while Chevron stated it could immediately ramp up its production of 240K bbl/day.
What do you think? Are you optimistic about Venezuela's oil future? Do you believe the projected production increases are realistic? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
