Amidst rising tensions, Gulf states and Turkey joined forces to persuade Donald Trump against launching airstrikes against Iran, fearing a potential escalation into a major, intractable conflict across the Middle East. The region's longstanding allies, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Turkey, issued warnings of chaos, which seemingly influenced Trump's decision to hold off on military action. This move was further solidified by Saudi Arabia's reluctance to grant the US access to its airspace for potential attacks.
The complex dynamics between Iran and the Gulf states have long been a source of political tension. Iran's continued support for its regional proxies, known as the axis of resistance, and its refusal to adopt a two-state solution for Palestine, coupled with territorial disputes over islands in the Gulf, have kept it at odds with the Gulf Cooperation Council. However, Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has been actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to improve relations with Arab nations. Last year, he made significant strides in Bahrain and Egypt, marking the first visits by an Iranian minister to these countries since 2010 and 2016, respectively.
The Saudi-Iranian relationship, once fraught with tension, has been on a gradual recovery path for three years. Araghchi's diplomatic endeavors have been accompanied by a focus on cultural diplomacy, as he is often photographed enjoying local cuisine in the Arab capitals he visits. The Gulf states are also acutely aware of Iran's potential to disrupt maritime traffic in the Gulf, a concern that has been amplified by recent events.
In a significant development, Araghchi has been arguing that Iran poses less of a threat to global stability than Israel. This argument gained traction after Israel's bombing of Doha in September, intended to target Hamas negotiators residing in the city. While the Israelis missed their primary targets, they reportedly killed five lower-ranking members of the group. The US, caught off guard by the strikes, apologized to Qatar's emir and offered new security guarantees to protect Qatar from further Israeli attacks, with Qatar accusing Israel of sabotaging peace efforts in the region.
The US, with its largest regional airbase in Qatar, al-Udeid, faced a critical juncture as tensions escalated. The withdrawal of key personnel from the base, following Tehran's threats to target US bases in the region, highlighted the vulnerability of American military installations. Iran's persistent claim that the US ordered Israel to end its assault on Iran's leadership and nuclear program after an Iranian strike on a US base further complicated the situation.
Despite the resentment towards Iranian proxy forces' interference in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, the Gulf states are wary of the potential consequences of an authoritarian regime's downfall through street protests, leading to a new democratic transition or the fragmentation of a unified Iranian state. Saudi Arabia's recent suppression of a rebellion in Yemen and Egypt's military leadership's focus on human rights reforms exemplify the region's sensitivity to such scenarios.
In a call for dialogue, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized the need for the US and Iran to resolve their issues independently, through mediators, other actors, or direct dialogue, underscoring the delicate balance of interests in the region.
